Here is a cool data sheet put together by the Fed. It details their projections for GDP growth, unemployment, PCE inflation, and where they think rates should be in the future. The full release can be seen here.
| Variable | Median1 | Central tendency2 | Range3 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | ||||
| Change in real GDP | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 – 2.0 | 1.9 – 2.2 | 1.8 – 2.1 | 1.8 – 2.0 | 1.8 – 2.2 | 1.6 – 2.4 | 1.5 – 2.2 | 1.6 – 2.4 | |||
| March projection | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 – 2.3 | 2.0 – 2.3 | 1.8 – 2.1 | 1.8 – 2.1 | 1.9 – 2.5 | 1.7 – 2.3 | 1.8 – 2.3 | 1.8 – 2.4 | |||
| Unemployment rate | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 – 4.8 | 4.5 – 4.7 | 4.4 – 4.8 | 4.7 – 5.0 | 4.5 – 4.9 | 4.3 – 4.8 | 4.3 – 5.0 | 4.6 – 5.0 | |||
| March projection | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 – 4.8 | 4.5 – 4.7 | 4.5 – 5.0 | 4.7 – 5.0 | 4.5 – 4.9 | 4.3 – 4.9 | 4.3 – 5.0 | 4.7 – 5.8 | |||
| PCE inflation | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 – 1.7 | 1.7 – 2.0 | 1.9 – 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 – 2.0 | 1.6 – 2.0 | 1.8 – 2.1 | 2.0 | |||
| March projection | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 – 1.6 | 1.7 – 2.0 | 1.9 – 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 – 1.6 | 1.6 – 2.0 | 1.8 – 2.0 | 2.0 | |||
| Core PCE inflation4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 – 1.8 | 1.7 – 2.0 | 1.9 – 2.0 | 1.3 – 2.0 | 1.6 – 2.0 | 1.8 – 2.1 | ||||||
| March projection | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 – 1.7 | 1.7 – 2.0 | 1.9 – 2.0 | 1.4 – 2.1 | 1.6 – 2.0 | 1.8 – 2.0 | ||||||
| Memo: Projected appropriate policy path | |||||||||||||||
| Federal funds rate | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 – 0.9 | 1.4 – 1.9 | 2.1 – 2.9 | 3.0 – 3.3 | 0.6 – 1.4 | 0.6 – 2.4 | 0.6 – 3.4 | 2.8 – 3.8 | |||
| March projection | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 – 1.4 | 1.6 – 2.4 | 2.5 – 3.3 | 3.0 – 3.5 | 0.6 – 1.4 | 1.6 – 2.8 | 2.1 – 3.9 | 3.0 – 4.0 | |||
Change in real GDP
Percent
Percent
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | – |
| Upper End of Range | – | – | – | – | – | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Median | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | – | – | – | – | – | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Lower End of Range | – | – | – | – | – | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Unemployment rate
Percent
Percent
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 8.7 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | – | – | – | – |
| Upper End of Range | – | – | – | – | – | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | – | – | – | – | – | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Median | – | – | – | – | – | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | – | – | – | – | – | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Lower End of Range | – | – | – | – | – | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
PCE inflation
Percent
Percent
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | – | – | – | – |
| Upper End of Range | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | – | – | – | – | – | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Median | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | – | – | – | – | – | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Range | – | – | – | – | – | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
